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Forthcoming article: Ukraine and the Hinge of History
Like many of you I have been horrified and transfixed by Putin's unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine, which is rapidly evolving into a massive atrocity as the Russian military's expectations of a quick and decisive victory are frustrated and they pivot to the methods of wholesale and indiscriminate destruction they used in Grozny and Aleppo.
Leon Trotsky observed after the 1917 Bolshevik revolution that wars are the "locomotives of history", creating and accelerating trends that reshape the world, as World War I did by creating the conditions for the rise of the international communist movement.
I am working on what I expect to be a major article that puts this unfolding series of events in a longer historical context, taking up a question already being debated by a group of intellectuals in the UK—are we living in a period of exceptional and disproportionate influence on the future of humanity, are we in a hinge of history.
It will address questions like (this is a pretty tall order so I will probably not get to them all, so let me know if you would like to address specific aspects):
- What impact will Ukraine have on the emerging challenge to the West (defined in terms of values not geography—Taiwan and South Korea are part of the West) posed by the autocratic alliance centred on Russia and China. Already it has served as a colossal wake-up call for the European democracies with formerly stictly neutral and pacifist states (Sweden, Finland, Switzerland) joining efforts to arm Ukraine. The turnaround in Germany is nothing less than astonishing.
- Will this be the death of the concept of globalization that has prevailed for the past forty years that saw large international trade flows and dependencies as both economically rational and essentially benign, even if they confer huge leverage to the autocracies, as with Europe's dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal.
- What are we to make of the ideological debates and fissures on both Left and Right that have emerged In Ukraine's wake, especially in the United States where we see commentators, formerly closely allied, on Fox News stridently attacking positions taken by each other, with a strongly pro-Ukraine Republican mainstream criticized by neo-isolationists like Tucker Carlson as well as an arch-reactionary fringe (e.g. Marjorie Taylor Green) drawn to Putin's "conservative values".
- How have different theories of international relations fared, with some pointing to Ukraine as a decisive refutation of the "realist" school led by the "conservative realist" George A. Mearsheimer that holds that, whatever their ideological pretensions, great powers rationally seek to maximize their interests, and the world is a better place that they do. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014 Mearsheimer predicted with great confidence that the Russians would not annex the whole of Ukraine. How realistic are the realists?
- If Putin is not a rational actor, contrary to widely held pre-Ukraine views, what are we to make of him? What makes him tick? Various theories have been put forward, from assertions that he is a "high performing psychopath", to an authoritarian committed to a rebirth of Christendom, to a nationalist ideologue committed to reuniting the traditional Russian lands and peoples, to someone who (according to one Russian commentator, safely out of Russia) operates according to the norms of a 1990s era St Petersburg gangster, ever ready to raise the ante in confrontations.
- How durable will the reawakening of the West be? Will relations and dependencies revert to normal after a "decent interval"? Will this force a re-balancing between the preoccupation with climate change and geostrategic issues when it comes to energy policy (Germany, again amazingly, has led the way here). How to secure the democracies' supply chains?
- How durable will the Russian/Chinese alliance of convenience be? Will proud Russians be happy, in the long term, with their status as very much a junior partner as the power disparity between them grows ever greater with time to their point where according to Nina Kruschevina (Nikita's great granddaughter) Russia could become a vassal of China? What about the deep historical antipathies between the two powers that, decades ago, led the famous New York Times correspondent Harrison E. Salisbury to predict an inevitable war between them?
If anyone with specific expertise would like to collaborate on this, or if you have any comments, please let me know via the contact form.
PS I have not forgotten about the final part in the three-article set about the Left that I promised a couple of weeks ago. It has been deferred, in the light of events, but not canceled.
Our moment in time
Posted by Peter Baldwin on Aug 31, 2023
This article outlines the main focus of the
polciv.org website—attempting to understand the significance of the historical moment we inhabit in light of the confluence of the recent acceleration of progress in powerful new technologies, especially artificial intelligence, that coincides with a pronounced sharpening of geopolitical tensions.
The Western-dominated global order is now under unprecedented challlenge by a powerful coalition of autocratic states, in key respects a more serious challenge than even the Cold War with the emergence of the CCP regime in China as a near-peer competitor to the Unted Statesin all the main determinants of national power.
How well placed are the democracies to meet this challenge, especially given the cultural revolution that has swept the West and undermined its civilizational self-confidence?
Oppenheimer's existential gamble
Posted by Peter Baldwin on Aug 28, 2023
Chris Nolan's acclaimed new film Oppenheimer includes a dialogue between J.Robert Oppenheimer, who headed the team that built the bomb at Los Alamos, and General Leslie Groves, the military commander on the project.
The dialogue touches on the concern expressed by some of the scientists, including Oppenheimer, that detonating the bomb might trigger a chain of fusion reactions in the atmosphere that might destroy the earth.
This was a first-order existential concern, a possibility that could cause human extinction. In our time, some of the leading researchers on artificial intelligence fear that a future super-intelligent AI could pose a similar risk. What if such an intelligence emerged at a time of high geopolitical tension, like now?
(This article first appeared in the Weekend Australian on 5 August 2023)
The AI revolution and Australian defence
Posted by Peter Baldwin on Aug 25, 2023
Have the authors of the Defence Strategic Review, released in April 2023, been paying close attention to the sharp acceleration of progress on artificial intelligence over the past few years? There is little evidence that they have, going on the publicly released version of of the review, which contains just on brief mention of AI.
This is regrettable, given that AI is set to have a transformative impact across a wide range of defence technologies, including anti-submarine warfare, with submarines relying on their stealthiness in deep oceans.
However various analyses indicate this advantage could be lost before Australia's new submarine fleet is deployed, due to a range of new sensing technologies integrated by AI.
(This article first appeared in the Weekend Australian on 6 May 2023)
The progressive case against the Voice
Posted by Peter Baldwin on Aug 25, 2023
Is the proposal for constitutionally entrenched Voice to parliament and the executive government "progressive", and if so, in what sense? This will seem like a no-brainer to most people on the Left.
This article makes the case that, in reality, the Voice is not a progressive measure on any reasonable understanding of the term, since it is likely to perpetuate racial distinctions and offers little prospect it will improve the situation of aboriginal Australians.
The proposal only seems comprehensible in light of the transformation in the Left's attitude to race and racism that flowed from its embrace of the reactionary politics of culture and identity over the last three decades.
(This article first appeared in the August 2023 issue of Quadrant magazine)
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