The ambivalence of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the decision to suspend opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was palpable, a problem compounded by the idiotic decision to close all Germany's nuclear power plants, not to mention the failure to exploit Europe's own extensive gas reserves. Even the United States is back to importing Russian gas.
This highlights a broader problem: The potential for conflict between achieving ambitious CO2 abatement goals and countering the potential for global hegemony by an alliance of Russia and the CCP regime in China, especially given China's dominance in both the manufacturing of solar cells and wind turbines (in some cases using Xinjiang slave labour) as well as control of the rare earths and other materials needed to produce them.
The Biden administration hopes its threat of “severe economic consequences” deters Russia from invading Ukraine – an event Americans officials say could be imminent.
In response, the U.S. said it may ban the export of microchips and other technologies to critical sectors like artificial intelligence and aerospace and freeze the personal assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other sanctions. Meanwhile, the Senate is preparing its own “mother of all sanctions” – such as against Russian banks and government debt – that could take effect even if Putin ultimately stands down from a military confrontation.
The U.S. and its allies have been stressing – as seen in President Joe Biden’s Feb. 7, 2022, meeting with the German chancellor – that they are united on the consequences for Russia should it invade.
But Russia has something that may undercut that solidarity: a network of European countries, Germany in particular, dependent on it for energy exports, especially natural gas. That may make them reluctant to go along with severe U.S. sanctions.
This dependence didn’t happen overnight. And as I’ve learned while working on a book on U.S. economic warfare against the USSR during the Cold War, this issue has tended to divide America and its allies – in part because of how Russia has exploited the ambiguity of its intentions.