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Anomalies in the Chinese Covid data

(George Calhoun, Forbes magazine, 11 January 2022)A widely held view is that the approach to suppressing the virus in China, while brutal, has been effective, making possible the realistic pursuit of a "zero Covid" policy. However this assessment depends on the reliability of the CCP regime's official statistics. This article argues there are huge anomalies, including some patent absurdities, in these statistics.

Here are the main kinds of anomalies the article identifies:

  • Differences in the reported mortality figures derived from reliable Western, Chinese, and international sources
  • The sudden and complete disappearance of Chinese Covid deaths from official reports after April 1 2020
  • The peculiar Case Fatality Rates in China — the primary measure of the virulence of the disease
  • The anomalous overall death statistics in China in 2020 and 2021

For an illustration of the second point, go to the China data on the excellent Our World in Data website, and scroll down the page for the daily confirmed deaths statistics and marvel at the bizarre shape of the graph!

Excerpts   Read the article   Discuss the article   View in graph

The most charitable interpretation of all this would be that China falls into the UN’s other “subset of countries where reporting systems are not functioning effectively.” Mere sloppiness. But how likely is that?

The more probable interpretation –- unfortunately – is that there has been a systematic campaign of data suppression and falsification, to sustain the Zero Covid claim which China’s leadership has embraced.

There is a history in China of this sort of mindset – setting a target, and forcing the “facts” to fit the target number. It is familiar to anyone who takes on the challenge of interpreting Chinese economic data.

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