It seems there have been three phases in the efforts to harness controlled fusion power (as distinct from the explosive power of the hydrogen bomb). The first, starting in 1950, made significant progress, with the development of the Soviet-originated Tokamak reactor, the Russian acronym for "toroidal chamber magnetic". Progress was spurred by vigorous international competition.
In the second phase it was decided it was wasteful to have these separate national efforts. Why not combine forces to work on a single big machine, the International Fusion Test Reactor (ITER)? According to the author, this lack of competition stymied progress, leading to defunding of non-Tokamak designs, and bogging the effort down in bureaucratic inertia.
The third phase saw the emergence of entrepreneurial private sector initiatives, inspired by the success of Elon Musk's SpaceX company, with these activities outstripping progress by government entities. There are now a raft of private startups in the field. The author concludes by betting on a force more powerful than fusion: human creativity. Let's hope he is right. If it works out, it could be the solution to the world's energy woes, not least climate change.
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“You know,” Krakowski said. “When fusion power is finally developed, it won’t be at a place like Los Alamos or Livermore. It will be done by a couple of crackpots working in a garage.”
We all laughed at that, knowing full-well how the formidable difficulties associated with fusion power development put such a feat well-beyond the capabilities of garage inventors. But in recent years the trend has moved forcefully towards validating Krakowski’s prophesy.
Though the national programs are a shadow of their former selves, and ITER continues to move ahead at the speed of continental drift, something else is going on.
A breakthrough has happened. Through its dramatic and rapid development of reusable launch rockets, Elon Musk’s SpaceX company demonstrated that it is possible for a well-run lean and creative entrepreneurial organization to achieve things—and do so much faster—that were previously thought to require the efforts of major power governments. This has hit observers of the fusion program like a bolt from the blue. Could it be that the seemingly insurmountable barriers to the achievement of controlled fusion—like the barriers to the attainment of cheap space launch—were not really technical, but institutional? Venturesome investors suddenly became interested. Around the world, well-funded entrepreneurial efforts have been launched to make fusion power a reality, and are moving ahead at a pace far outmatching the official government programs. The way things are going, there is an excellent chance that the first controlled thermonuclear fusion reactors will be ignited before this decade is out. Perhaps not by a couple of crackpots in a garage, but by a team of startup company engineers working in a warehouse.